Goldman Sachs CEO Meets Prediction Market Leaders to Assess CFTC-Regulated Contracts
Goldman Sachs is actively exploring prediction markets, with CEO David Solomon spending hours with Kalshi and Polymarket leadership to assess CFTC-regulated event contracts. A dedicated internal team is evaluating integration opportunities, although Solomon warned institutional adoption may proceed slower than some expect.
1. Strong Q4 and Full-Year Performance
Goldman Sachs reported fourth-quarter EPS up 26.6% year-over-year to $51.32, driven by record equities trading revenues of $4.31 billion (up from $3.45 billion a year earlier) and fixed income, currencies and commodities trading of $3.11 billion (up 12.5%). Investment banking fees rose 25% to $2.58 billion, reflecting top billing on $1.48 trillion of global merger and acquisition volume and $4.6 billion in advisory fees for the full year. The firm delivered full-year return on tangible equity of 17.1% and achieved net revenues of approximately $53 billion in 2025.
2. Disciplined Capital Return
Goldman increased its quarterly dividend by 12.5% to $4.50 per share, marking the sixth straight year of double-digit dividend hikes. Share repurchases totaled $16.8 billion in the quarter, bringing total capital returned to shareholders in 2025 to $50 billion. The bank’s CET1 ratio remained robust at 14.5%, underscoring its ability to maintain strong capital buffers while executing significant buybacks.
3. Valuation and Strategic Outlook
Trading at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 18.7×, above its five-year average of 16.5×, Goldman Sachs management sees room for a rerating toward a 20× multiple over the next two to three years as earnings normalize at higher levels. The firm has set a medium-term pre-tax margin target of 30% in its asset and wealth management division (up from 25% in 2025) and continues to divest non-core assets, including the Apple Card portfolio, to focus on fee-rich businesses and enhance return on equity.