Goldman Sachs has shifted its estimate for the first U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut from June to September 2026 and now sees a subsequent 25-basis-point reduction in December, marking a three-month delay in easing expectations.

The bank pointed to higher inflation risks linked to the Iran war alongside a 50% reduction in the International Energy Agency’s oil supply forecast, warning that tighter global energy markets could sustain price pressures.

Goldman Sachs noted that further softening in the U.S. labor market and progress on core inflation by September would underpin rate easing, but emphasized that sharper-than-expected job losses could prompt earlier cuts.

Crypto market data now price in only a single rate cut this year with a 28% probability, while the odds of zero cuts have risen to around 20%, reflecting shifting expectations on Fed policy timing.