Goldman Sachs estimates Gulf oil exports at 15 million to 16 million bpd

Goldman Sachs on Thursday estimated recent total Gulf exports at roughly 15 million to 16 million barrels per day (bpd), still 7 million to 8 million bpd below pre-war levels, but 5 million to 6 million bpd above the March trough.

The estimates published in a note were derived using two independent methods.

• Goldman Sachs said that although the estimates focus on total Gulf flows, the upward revisions indicate oil transits through the Strait of Hormuz are likely close to U.S. officials' estimate of 8 million to 10 million barrels per day.
• The Strait of Hormuz handled about one-fifth of global daily seaborne oil and liquefied natural gas supplies before the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran began in late February.
• "The rise in dark crossings by specialized shippers and in ship-to-ship transfers shows that producers and shippers are adapting to the Mideast conflict," the note said.
• Goldman Sachs continues to see greater price upside to European natural gas prices and longer-dated oil product contracts than for crude in scenarios involving persistent disruptions.
• Brent crude prices settled up 2.1% on Thursday, snapping a three-session losing streak, after a Wall Street Journal report said U.S. President Donald Trump was not interested in returning to the terms of a memorandum of understanding reached with Iran in June. O/R