Goldman Sachs expects oil prices to ease as supply surplus returns in late 2026
USO•Goldman Sachs forecasts moderating oil prices as global supply exceeds demand in the fourth quarter of 2026 and in 2027. Dated Brent for delivery next month trades above $130 a barrel, while benchmark Brent futures have recently exceeded $100.
1. Oil market outlook
Goldman Sachs forecasts that global oil supply will exceed demand in the fourth quarter of 2026 and in 2027. Spot Brent prices include a nearly $25-a-barrel risk premium reflecting potential supply disruptions from further Middle East escalation, while near-record-low inventories and portfolio hedging demand are helping keep prices elevated.
2. Supply and demand
Higher production outside the Gulf and weaker global demand have brought the market nearly into balance despite remaining Persian Gulf production shortfalls.
