(Reporting by Katha Kalia and Sukanya Mitra in Bengaluru; Editing by Stephen Coates and Mark Potter)
Goldman Sachs and HSBC raise forecasts
Sept. 8 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs and HSBC raised their oil price forecasts this week as prices climbed to multi-week highs on persistent Middle East shipping disruptions.
Goldman Sachs on Monday raised its Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude oil price forecasts by $5 a barrel for December 2026 and 2027, citing an expectation that shipping disruptions in the Middle East will persist into next year.
Goldman Sachs said in a note that Brent crude could climb above $120 a barrel if average Gulf oil output in 2027 remains 4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels, compared with its base case assumption of a 0.5 million bpd shortfall.
It also noted that Brent crude could fall into the $60s in 2027 under a downside price scenario in which average Gulf oil output rises 1 million barrels per day above pre-war levels.
HSBC on Tuesday raised its 2026 and 2027 Brent price forecasts to $90 and $85 a barrel, respectively.
"We think the market is adjusting to a disrupted 'new normal' in which the strait is neither fully closed nor fully open, but persistently impaired," HSBC said in a note, referring to the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping route.
HSBC said it does not expect the market to return to balance until around mid-2027, implying further inventory drawdowns in coming quarters.
Oil prices hit multi-week highs on Tuesday after Iran-backed Houthis attacked Saudi energy facilities and Tehran threatened the United States with "economic warfare".
Brent crude futures LCOc1 earlier rose to $99.46, their highest since July 24, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 reached $94.73, its highest since June 8. O/R
Forecast table after the U.S.-Iran peace deal announcement
Brokerage/Agency
Brent 2026
Brent 2027
WTI 2026
WTI 2027
Forecasts as of
Price Targets
Goldman Sachs
$80
$75
Sept. 7
Expects Brent at $85/bbl and WTI at $80/bbl for December 2026
HSBC
$90
$85
Sept. 8
Raises Brent forecast to $95/b for 4Q26, $85/b for 2027, and $75/b thereafter
Morgan Stanley
Aug. 23
Raises Q326 Brent forecast to $90/bbl and Q426 to $100/bbl; raises Q127 forecast to $95/bbl, Q227 to $90/bbl, Q327 to $80/bbl and Q427 to $75/bbl
UBS
Aug. 18
Sees Brent crude at $85/bbl end of Dec-26, $80/bbl over end-March to end-Sept. 2027 period
Citi
$65
Aug. 7
Raises Q3 2026 Brent forecast to $80/bbl from $75/bbl
ANZ
July 24
Maintains end-Q3 2026 Brent forecast of $92/bbl
Barclays
$96 ($100 previously)
$85 ($88 previously)
$90
$82
June 26, 2026
Sees Brent at $100/bbl for Q3 2026 and $95/bbl for Q4 2026
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