Goldman Sachs Pushes Back Fed Rate-Cut Forecast to December 2026
Goldman Sachs now expects the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut in December 2026, six months later than its prior mid-2026 projection. The bank cites a surge in US inflation driven by supply shocks and rising oil prices following the war in Iran.
1. Forecast Revision
Goldman Sachs updated its monetary outlook, now projecting the first Federal Reserve rate cut in December 2026, shifting six months later than its previous mid-2026 estimate.
2. Inflation Surge from Middle East Conflict
Analysts at the bank point to supply disruptions and higher crude oil prices resulting from the Iran war as key drivers behind stickier US inflation and delayed easing.
3. Market and Client Implications
Extended high-rate conditions could pressure interest-sensitive sectors, alter equity valuations and influence trading desks and asset-management strategies for corporate and institutional clients.