Goldman Sachs raised its first-quarter 2027 European natural gas price forecast to €74 per megawatt-hour from €44 and its full-year forecast to €51/MWh from €32. The bank cited uncertainty over Middle East LNG supply and winter weather.
Goldman Sachs raised its first-quarter 2027 European natural gas price forecast to €74 per megawatt-hour from €44, and its full-year forecast to €51/MWh from €32/MWh. The bank said the outlook remains highly uncertain because of risks to Middle East liquefied natural gas supply and winter weather.
Goldman estimates markets are pricing in a 47% probability of persistently low Middle East LNG supply this winter alongside colder-than-average temperatures. It said a departure from average winter temperatures in northwestern Europe can shift regional gas demand by an amount equivalent to 12% of storage capacity.
Persian Gulf LNG exports averaged 33% of pre-war levels, Goldman said, with tanker movements volatile and estimated LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz still well below the recovery in oil flows. The Dutch front-month TTF contract fell more than 10% to €10.77/MWh on Monday as mediation talks raised hopes for an end to the US-Israeli war, while attacks on ships in the region continued.
