Goldman Sachs Raises General Motors Target to $104, Signals 20% Upside and $6B Buyback
Goldman Sachs set a $104 price target on General Motors, implying 20.4% upside, following a 57.8% year-over-year stock gain and a Q4 EPS beat of $2.51 versus $2.20 consensus. GM also announced a 20% dividend increase and a $6 billion share repurchase program to bolster capital returns.
1. Canada Shift Reduction to Eliminate 500 Jobs
General Motors announced it will cut one production shift at its Oshawa, Ontario assembly plant, resulting in the layoff of approximately 500 workers by mid-year. The decision follows a sustained downturn in demand for certain models produced at Oshawa and comes after U.S. import duties on Canadian-built pickups squeezed margins across GM’s North American operations. Management indicated the move will reduce annual operating costs by an estimated CAD 75 million and help realign capacity ahead of next-generation electric truck programmes slated for later this decade.
2. Tens of Millions Invested in Kansas Workforce for Three Major Launches
GM is committing “tens of millions” of dollars to the Fairfax Assembly Plant in Kansas City to raise base wages by up to 12% and provide advanced skills training for hourly employees. The investment supports upcoming launches of the next-generation Buick compact SUV, the redesigned Chevrolet Equinox, and updates to the Chevrolet Bolt EV line. Plant director Michael Youngs highlighted that the funding will pay for new technical labs, expanded apprenticeship cohorts, and enhanced safety certifications—measures expected to boost productivity by 8% and reduce onboarding time by one week per hire.
3. Software and Subscription Services Drive New High-Margin Revenue Streams
Over the last nine months, GM’s in-vehicle software and services division generated nearly USD 2.0 billion in revenue, while future contractual commitments for OnStar safety and Super Cruise hands-free driving subscriptions now total roughly USD 5.0 billion. Subscription margins average around 70 cents on the dollar—substantially higher than the 4–10 cents typically earned on vehicle sales. The company has grown its OnStar subscriber base by 34% year-over-year to 11 million active accounts and is targeting annual software revenue of USD 3.5 billion by 2027 through over-the-air feature upgrades and data-driven services.
4. Q4 Earnings Beat but Guidance Remains Conservative
In its latest quarter, GM reported adjusted earnings per share of USD 2.51 compared with consensus of USD 2.20, driven by robust SUV and full-size truck sales in North America. However, full-year 2026 EPS guidance was set at USD 9.75 to USD 10.50, below the USD 11.73 average analyst forecast, as the company conservatively factors in potential headwinds from commodity inflation and uneven EV adoption. RBC Capital Markets raised its target to USD 107 while maintaining an Outperform rating, citing possible USD 500 million in annual EBIT upside from higher EV margins and incremental benefits from easing U.S.-Canada tariff tensions.