Goldman Sachs raises oil price forecasts on prolonged Mideast shipping risks
GS•Hedging recommendation
"We still recommend hedging geopolitical risk through deferred Mar27-Dec27 European diesel timespreads, which would rise over 100% if persistent Russia or Mideast refinery outages keep the nearby 9-month spread near current levels," the note added.
Goldman raises Brent and WTI forecasts
Goldman Sachs raised its Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude oil price forecasts by $5 a barrel for December 2026 and 2027, citing an expectation that shipping disruptions in the Middle East will persist into next year.
It now forecasts Brent at $85 a barrel and WTI at $80 for December 2026, while it projects 2027 prices at $80 and $75 a barrel, respectively.
Middle East shipping risks remain elevated
- Iran threatened to retaliate against any new U.S. attacks on its assets, warning that energy infrastructure across the Gulf, including U.S. oil and gas interests, were vulnerable.
- Oil prices drifted higher and were lingering near six-week highs.
- Since the war erupted with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, Iran has increased restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for global energy supplies.
- An average of 10 commodity ships transited the Strait of Hormuz per day over the past 10 days, the lowest since May, according to shipping data on Monday.
