Sept. 7 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs raised its Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude oil price forecasts by $5 a barrel for December 2026 and 2027, citing an expectation that shipping disruptions in the Middle East will persist into next year.
- Goldman Sachs said Brent crude could climb above $120 a barrel if average Gulf oil output in 2027 remains 4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels, compared with its base case assumption of a 0.5 million bpd shortfall.
- It also noted that Brent crude could fall into the $60s in 2027 under a downside price scenario in which average Gulf oil output rises 1 million barrels per day above pre-war levels.
- Iran threatened the United States with "economic warfare", underscoring the risks of further escalation in the war only days after both sides traded blows again.
- The 6-month-old war has been marked by a cycle of pauses followed by periodic flare-ups.
- An average of 10 commodity ships transited the Strait of Hormuz per day over the past 10 days, the lowest since May, shipping data showed on Monday.
- "The price upgrade is modest despite our new assumption that shipping disruptions continue because OECD commercial oil inventories have so far barely drawn since the war began, and because we assume Mideast supply adaptation continues," the bank said in the note.
- Renewed conflict in the Middle East pushed oil prices to a six-week high, as fears of supply disruptions intensified. O/R
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