Goldman Sachs sees $1.7 trillion buyback wave cushioning hit from stock supply surge
GS•Goldman Sachs expects US companies to return a record $1.7 trillion to shareholders through buybacks in 2027, potentially offsetting a rise in equity issuance. The brokerage forecasts $600 billion in issuance that year, while issuance has reached about $431 billion so far this year.
1. Buybacks and issuance
Goldman Sachs expects US companies to return a record $1.7 trillion to shareholders through stock buybacks in 2027, potentially cushioning the impact of increased share supply on market valuations. The brokerage expects corporate equity issuance to total $600 billion in 2027, citing solid economic growth, higher stock prices, lower interest rates and continued investment linked to artificial intelligence.
2. Issuance climbs
US equity issuance has reached about $431 billion this year, up 98% from a year earlier, and is on track to exceed the prior annual record of $540 billion set in 2021, Goldman Sachs said. The brokerage estimates AI-related follow-on offerings accounted for about $65 billion, or 45%, of total US volumes this year.
3. Supply outlook
Goldman Sachs expects net public equity supply in 2027, including shares released after post-IPO lockup expirations, to post its largest increase since 2000. It said buybacks, alongside elevated demand from households and foreign investors, should absorb the additional shares.
