Goldman Sachs Sees 57% Gulf Oil Drop, Chinese Export Prices Surge 20%
Goldman Sachs estimates Persian Gulf crude output is 14.5 million barrels per day below pre-war levels, marking a 57% decline since the Iran war began. Chinese exporters have lifted prices on goods like syringes by up to 20% as oil-linked input costs surge, raising global inflation pressures.
1. Gulf Output Disruption
Goldman Sachs estimates Persian Gulf crude output is down 57%, about 14.5 million barrels per day below pre-war levels as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed under maritime blockades.
2. Chinese Export Price Increases
Chinese exporters lifted prices across over a dozen categories, with items such as syringes up 20% and polyester-based apparel posting mid-single digit gains as oil-linked input costs climbed.
3. Forecast and Market Impact
GS’s base case projects a gradual production recovery over several months following a full reopening of the strait, while Brent futures have risen for five straight sessions, signaling markets are pricing in prolonged disruption and higher inflation.