Goldman Sachs Sees Brent Oil Averaging Above $100 a Barrel in March
Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent crude to average above $100 per barrel in March after extending Strait of Hormuz disruption assumptions to 21 days at 10% normal flows. In a severe scenario lasting two months, the bank sees March–April averages at $110 and spot prices potentially breaching $147.
1. March Brent Price Forecast
Goldman Sachs now expects Brent crude to average above $100 per barrel in March, marking an upward revision from its earlier forecasts. The bank attributes this increase to prolonged geopolitical disruptions and shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz.
2. Scenario Analysis and Peak Risk
In its base case, GS models 21 days of flows at just 10% normal capacity followed by gradual recovery, pushing average prices to $110 across March–April in a severe scenario. Under extended disruption, spot prices could even spike above the 2008 peak of $147 per barrel.
3. H2 Normalization and Asterisk
Despite the near-term squeeze, Goldman projects Brent will ease to $71 by the fourth quarter. However, if supply disruptions last two months, it warns the year-end average could jump to $93 instead of the planned $71, underscoring persistent volatility risks.