Goldman Sachs Sees Gold Hitting $4,900 on Central Bank Demand
GS•Goldman Sachs forecasts gold will reach $4,900 per ounce by end-2026, citing a 123% gain since 2022 and a record 45% of central banks boosting reserves. The firm warns near-term headwinds from a hawkish Fed and rate-sensitive ETF outflows may pause the rally before reversing.
1. Goldman Sachs Gold Forecast
Goldman Sachs co-head of global commodities research Samantha Dart and her team project gold will climb to $4,900 per ounce by end-2026, driven by both structural factors and expected cyclical shifts in demand.
2. Structural Drivers of Upside
Emerging market central bank diversification remains a key driver, with a survey showing 45% of 76 central banks plan to raise their gold reserves within 12 months following geopolitical asset freezes.
3. Cyclical Headwinds and Outlook
A hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve and rate-sensitive ETF outflows have weighed on prices recently, but the team expects these headwinds to ease as rate hikes stabilize, supporting a renewed gold rally.
