Goldman Sachs Sees Record 8.7 m Bbls/Day May Drawdown, US SPR Falls 17.8 m
GS•Goldman Sachs says visible crude inventories shrank by a record 8.7 million barrels per day in May, almost double the pace since the Middle East war began and driven two-thirds by a collapse in oil-on-water exports. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve plunged 17.8 million barrels in one week.
1. Record Inventory Drawdown
Goldman Sachs analysts report that visible crude inventories declined by 8.7 million barrels per day in May, nearly double the average drawdown rate since the Middle East conflict began, reflecting an unprecedented erosion of global stockpiles.
2. Oil-on-Water Exports Collapse
Two-thirds of the May decline stemmed from a sharp collapse in oil-on-water exports, with estimated flows through the Strait of Hormuz operating at just 5% of normal capacity due to dual blockades.
3. US Strategic Reserve Depletion
US crude inventories, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, plunged by a record 17.8 million barrels in a single week as historic export volumes continue to erode domestic stockpiles.
4. Global Market Tightness
European jet-fuel supplies fell 60% below 2025 averages, China’s crude imports declined sharply as refinery demand weakened, and commercial inventories are projected to remain undersupplied through October.
