Goldman Sachs Warns of Record 8.7M bpd Oil Draws, Inventories at Eight-Year Low
GS•Goldman Sachs warns global oil inventories fell at double March’s rate in April and have dropped by 8.7 million barrels per day since May 1. Stockpiles now cover about 101 days of demand, the lowest level in nearly eight years, heightening risks of further market shocks.
1. Accelerated Decline in Oil Inventories
Goldman Sachs analysts report that April’s drawdown rate on global oil stocks was twice that of March, and since May 1 daily withdrawals have averaged 8.7 million barrels—the fastest pace ever recorded.
2. Inventories at Eight-Year Low
Total global holdings have shrunk to roughly 101 days of consumption, the smallest cushion since 2018, raising concerns about the market’s ability to absorb new supply disruptions.
3. Strait Export Constraints
Oil exports through the key maritime strait are operating at just 5% of normal levels, tightening physical supply and exacerbating the rapid depletion of inventories.
4. Price Risk and Outlook
Competing analysts warn that prolonged supply losses could drive crude toward $200 per barrel, while tanker traffic disruptions may push Brent to $120; a peace deal could pull prices back toward $80 by year-end.
