Goldman Sachs Warns Oil Could Exceed $100 Through 2027 After 19-Day Hormuz Shutdown
Goldman Sachs analysts warned oil prices could exceed $100 per barrel through 2027 as a 19-day Strait of Hormuz shutdown cuts 20% of global supply. They project Brent could hit $147 or average $111 by Q4 2027 if disruptions persist.
1. Analysts Warn of Prolonged High Prices
Goldman Sachs analysts highlighted that repeated supply shocks, including recent Middle East conflicts, have heightened the risk that oil prices will remain above $100 per barrel through 2027. The note attributes this persistence to damaged energy infrastructure and constrained shipping lanes.
2. Strategic Supply Disruptions Through Hormuz Closure
The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed for 19 days, cutting about 20% of global oil supply and marking the largest disruption on record. This sustained closure underscores long-term challenges to restoring pre-conflict flow levels.
3. Scenarios for Future Brent Price Movements
In a worst-case scenario with extended disruptions, Goldman Sachs projects Brent crude could reach the 2008 high of $147 per barrel or average $111 by Q4 2027. Conversely, a gradual reopening could ease prices into the $70s by late 2026, though risks remain elevated.