Goldman Sees 46-Cent EPS Lift from Apple Card Transition; Holiday iPhone 17 Demand Strengthens

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Goldman Sachs forecasts a 46-cent earnings boost in Apple’s fiscal Q4 2025 as the company releases reserves during the 24-month transition of its Apple Card program to JPMorgan. Data from LikeFolio indicates robust iPhone 17 demand in late 2025, suggesting continued strength in device sales heading into 2026.

1. Cook's 2025 Compensation and iPhone 17 Equivalent

Apple CEO Tim Cook’s 2025 pay package, though slightly below his 2024 haul, remains one of the largest in corporate America. Based on the average selling price of the iPhone 17, his total compensation could theoretically purchase 92,984 units of Apple’s flagship smartphone. Despite this generous package, shares of Apple have underperformed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite over the past year, an unusual divergence for a company with such strong executive alignment to shareholder outcomes.

2. Robust Holiday Demand for iPhone 17 Fuels Supercycle Momentum

Data from LikeFolio indicate that social media mentions of the iPhone 17 jumped by approximately 30% week-over-week during the final two weeks of December 2025, signaling sustained consumer interest heading into 2026. This surge in engagement coincided with a year-end unit sales increase estimated at around 12% compared to the same period in 2024, reinforcing expectations that the iPhone 17 will drive a multi-year hardware upgrade cycle.

3. Goldman Forecasts EPS Lift from Apple Card Transition

In its recent analysis, Goldman Sachs projects a 46-cent boost to Apple’s fourth-quarter earnings per share driven by the company’s exit from the Apple Card program and the gradual release of related credit loss reserves over a 24-month transition to JPMorgan. This reserve release is expected to contribute roughly 10% of total EPS for the quarter, partially offsetting modest hardware margin pressure and highlighting the growing importance of financial services in Apple’s profitability profile.

Sources

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