Goldman Sees Brent Exceeding $100 If Hormuz Closure Extends One Month
Goldman Sachs warns Brent crude could average over $100 per barrel through 2026 if the Strait of Hormuz closure extends by another month. Its base-case forecasts $82 a barrel in Q3 and $80 in Q4, with adverse scenarios projecting $120 in Q3 and $115 in Q4.
1. Goldman’s Brent Price Warning
Analysts at Goldman Sachs issued a note projecting that Brent crude could average above $100 per barrel through 2026 if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for an additional month, highlighting upside risks to oil prices amid ongoing Middle East tensions.
2. Base-Case Flow Recovery and Price Estimates
Under Goldman’s base-case outlook, flows through the strait are expected to resume this weekend, followed by a one-month gradual recovery of Persian Gulf exports to pre-conflict levels, resulting in average Brent prices of $82 per barrel in Q3 and $80 in Q4.
3. Adverse Scenarios and Higher Price Projections
In the adverse view—where reopening is postponed for another month—Brent is forecast to exceed $100 per barrel in the second half of 2026. A deeper disruption scenario, involving prolonged closure and regional production losses, boosts estimates to $120 in Q3 and $115 in Q4.
4. Market Dynamics and Geopolitical Developments
Brent last traded near $97 after a 13% drop following a fragile truce announcement. U.S. Vice President comments on a tenuous ceasefire, presidential warnings on Hormuz security, and Iran’s new designated safe routes around Larak Island continue to shape oil market sentiment.