Analysts at Goldman Sachs now project Brent crude will average $105 in March and climb to $115 in April if current Strait of Hormuz flow constraints persist for six weeks. In an adverse scenario extending to ten weeks, Brent could challenge its 2008 record before settling toward $100 by late 2026.

Goldman’s model indicates a 10% crude oil price increase lifts headline PCE inflation by 0.2 percentage points and core PCE by 0.04 points, with energy-driven core inflation peaking around 0.35 points by year end. Elevated oil costs also ripple through aluminum and fertilizer markets, adding roughly 1.5% to food prices and further boosting headline inflation.

Weaponization of the Strait of Hormuz has halted roughly 20% of global oil and LNG shipments, as Iran’s attacks on commercial shipping in the Persian Gulf escalate regional risks. The UAE has condemned these strikes as economic terrorism, warning that prolonged closure poses a security and supply challenge for global markets.

As a global consumer goods manufacturer, Colgate-Palmolive faces heightened raw material and logistics costs driven by surging energy prices. Persistent oil-driven inflation could compress profit margins and prompt price adjustments in consumer segments where the company competes.