Goldman's five reasons why European gas prices won't repeat 2022
UNG•Goldman Sachs analysts see European gas prices at 70 EUR/MWh through the fourth quarter of 2026, 20% below current levels, if Persian Gulf LNG exports continue to improve. They cite stronger global supply, higher European import capacity, more nuclear and renewable generation, lower demand and relaxed storage rules.
1. Goldman’s price outlook
Goldman Sachs analysts say they expect prices at 70 EUR/MWh through the fourth quarter of 2026, assuming Persian Gulf LNG exports continue to improve over the winter, as they have over the past six weeks. That would be well below the 300-plus EUR/MWh highs in 2022, despite an LNG supply shock of similar scale to the curtailment of Russian gas supplies that year and lower northwest European inventories.
2. Five factors cited
Goldman says global LNG supply is up 6% from 2022, including a 23% rise from outside the Middle East. Northwest Europe’s LNG import capacity has increased 78%, led by Germany and the Netherlands. Nuclear and renewable generation are higher, with renewables up 41%, or 13 GW. The analysts expect northwest European gas demand to average 16% below pre-2022 levels this winter, citing industrial capacity shutdowns and more heat-pump installations. They also say relaxed EU gas-storage requirements reduce inelastic demand for natural gas.
