Grab’s Q3 EBITDA Soars 51% to $136m, Acquires Infermove for Automation
Grab’s Q3 adjusted EBITDA rose 51% to $136m on $873m mobility and $465m deliveries revenue; it acquired AI robotics firm Infermove to boost last-mile automation. Shares are down 12% YTD and 33% below 52-week high following proposed Indonesian rules to halve commission caps to 10%, potentially squeezing margins.
1. Grab’s Super App Growth Fuels Revenue Expansion
Grab has solidified its position as a leading super app in Southeast Asia by integrating mobility, delivery and financial services on a single platform. In Q3, mobility revenue reached $873 million, up 22% year-over-year, driven by a 24% increase in on-demand gross merchandise value to $5.8 billion. The deliveries segment, covering food and grocery, contributed $465 million in revenue, a 23% gain compared to the same period last year, supported by growth in GrabMart and advertising services. Financial services, which include digital payments and lending, are on track to build a $1 billion loan portfolio by year-end and helped lift adjusted EBITDA to $136 million, an increase of 51% year-over-year. Grab’s network of 40 million monthly active users, many of whom use multiple services, underpins these strong results and funds investments in emerging technologies like autonomous delivery through its recent acquisition of Infermove.
2. Regulatory and Competitive Risks Weigh on Sentiment
Despite robust operational metrics, investor confidence has waned due to heightened regulatory scrutiny in Grab’s largest market, Indonesia. Proposed measures under consideration would cap ride-hailing commissions at 10%—down from the current 20%—and mandate that platforms fully insure drivers against accidents and fatalities. These changes could materially increase operating costs for both mobility and delivery services. Intensifying antitrust reviews surrounding a potential merger with GoTo and aggressive incentive campaigns by regional rival Gojek further pressure Grab’s market share and margins. As a result, the stock has underperformed year-to-date and remains well below its 52-week peak, reflecting the market’s caution over near-term headwinds.
3. Profitability Milestones and Valuation Considerations
Grab achieved its first profitable quarter on an adjusted basis in early 2025 and has maintained positive adjusted EBITDA since. In the latest quarter, per-share earnings were flat year-over-year at $0.01, narrowly missing some analyst estimates, while full-year guidance remains conservative to accommodate further fintech investments. The company’s strong cash position—bolstered by recent capital raises—supports continued expansion into AI-driven logistics and financial products. At roughly 150 times trailing earnings, Grab’s valuation reflects expectations for hypergrowth through at least 2027. Market skeptics point to Southeast Asia’s economic volatility, currency fluctuations and execution risks as justification for a cautious stance, whereas optimists highlight the potential upside from accelerating adoption of digital payments and autonomous delivery solutions.