Offering additional support to the market, Russia will have to further cut grain exports this month after halting loadings at its main ports on the Black and Azov seas, with another terminal announcing that it had suspended operations.
The move by KSK, Russia's largest sea grain terminal, means all three terminals in the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk have now been halted. Two others there, NZT and NKHP, were put out of action on Wednesday after a massive Ukrainian drone attack on the port.
However, Ukraine has sent Russia an offer suggesting they both halt attacks on civilian targets in the Black Sea, according to a source.
Wheat rises on Black Sea supply disruptions
Chicago wheat futures rose on Friday and were poised for their biggest weekly rise in a month, as disruptions to Black Sea supplies linked to the Russia-Ukraine war underpinned prices.
Soybeans and corn firmed, although forecasts of rains in the U.S. Midwest limited the upside potential in prices.
The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was up 0.8% at $6.73-1/2 a bushel, as of 0209 GMT, soybeans Sv1 added 0.2% to $11.84 a bushel and corn Cv1 edged 0.2% higher to $4.73 a bushel.
Wheat has risen around 5% so far this week, the most since mid-July, while corn and soybeans are on track to finish the week in positive territory.
US acreage and Argentina weather shape outlook
Agricultural markets are adjusting to a new supply-and-demand outlook after the U.S. Department of Agriculture raised this week its 2026 U.S. corn and soybean acreage estimates while lowering its yield forecasts in its monthly report.
Traders are turning their attention to a major field tour next week that will give another indication of yield prospects for U.S. corn and soybeans, with forecasts for rain this week tempering some yield concerns.
In other news, Argentina's 2025/26 corn harvest is facing major delays as excessive moisture slows fieldwork across key farming regions, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said on Thursday, underscoring the impact of unusually heavy winter rains linked to El Niño.
Market worries over prolonged export disruptions
"We would stress that the consequences for global wheat supply, in the event of either a prolonged or a recurrent disruption to Russian and Ukrainian exports, are disproportionately large relative to what current pricing implies," BMI said in a note.
"Russia and Ukraine are not marginal participants. Their combined 2026/27 exports of 62.0mn tonnes account for 29.1% of world trade, with Russia alone at 22.3%, making them structurally critical to the global balance, and the market's willingness to fade the July spike appears premised on a swift resolution that we believe is far from assured."
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