Grains-Wheat climbs on Ukraine war risks, bullish USDA global stocks view

Meanwhile, the USDA lowered its forecast of global wheat supplies remaining at the end of the 2026/27 marketing year to 272.84 million metric tons, lower than most analysts expected and a drop from 279.04 million tons the prior year. The USDA also projected that U.S. farmers would harvest the smallest wheat crop in 56 years. "So you've got a tightening world supply of wheat due to the production issues, but now you've got the big share of world wheat just having a hard time getting out to the market," said Jim McCormick, chief operating officer with U.S.-based AgMarket.net. The USDA on Friday left its estimate of the European Union's wheat harvest unchanged, while European analysts, including commodity data firm Expana and grain trade association Coceral, lowered their estimates this week following a severe heat wave. The USDA did lower its estimate of the EU's corn crop to 53.78 million metric tons, from its June forecast of 57.5 million. Chicago Board of Trade September wheat WU26 settled up 20-1/2 cents, or 3.3%, at $6.40-1/4 per bushel, after reaching $6.49-1/4, its highest since May 27. Euronext September wheat BL2U6 added 5.5%. CBOT December corn CZ26 ended up 9 cents, or 2%, at $4.61 a bushel and November soybeans SX26 finished up 9-1/2 cents, or 0.8%, at $11.90-3/4 a bushel. Wheat led the way up on worries about supplies from [Russia](https://www.reuters.com/world/russia/), the world's top exporter of the food grain. Russia temporarily stopped shipping through the Don-Azov channel, a waterway linking the Don River with the Sea of Azov, three grain export industry sources said, following a Ukrainian attack on 13 Russian vessels in the Sea of Azov on Friday. Market analysts note that up to one-quarter of wheat exports from Russia pass through the Sea of Azov. CBOT corn and soybean futures followed the firm trend in wheat, with USDA's projection for a year-on-year drop in world corn and soy supplies lending support. Domestically, the USDA lowered its forecast of U.S. 2026/27 corn ending stocks more than most analysts expected. For U.S. soybeans, the agency left its 2026/27 stocks forecast unchanged, while most analysts had expected an increase. The agency's outlook for tightening U.S. and world grain supplies magnifies the importance of crop weather in the coming weeks, especially in the Midwest corn and soybean belt, said Don Roose, president of Iowa-based U.S. Commodities. "Your margin of error for the summer is now gone. You need weather to be fairly decent to get the yields," Roose said. U.S. and European wheat futures rose on Friday to their highest levels since late May on signs of escalation in the [Russia-Ukraine war](https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-russia-war/) coupled with U.S. government forecasts for tightening world wheat inventories, analysts said. Corn and soybeans rose after a monthly report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture projected smaller-than-expected world inventories of grains and oilseeds.

Grains-Wheat climbs on Ukraine war risks, bullish USDA global stocks view

USDA cuts global wheat and EU corn outlooks

Russia shipping disruption adds to wheat supply concerns

U.S. grain stocks outlook keeps Midwest weather in focus

Wheat futures climb on war risks and tighter supply outlook

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