Grocery Outlet Q3 adjusted EBITDA misses estimates, cuts FY guidance
GO•Grocery Outlet’s third-quarter adjusted EBITDA was $59.4 million, below the $60.81 million estimate, while net sales rose 0.9% to $1.18 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.16 beat estimates. The company raised its fiscal 2026 comparable-store sales outlook and lowered the top end of its adjusted EBITDA forecast.
1. Quarterly results
Grocery Outlet reported third-quarter net sales of $1.18 billion, compared with analyst expectations of $1.17 billion. Adjusted EPS was $0.16 versus estimates of $0.15, while adjusted EBITDA of $59.4 million missed the $60.81 million estimate.
2. Fiscal 2026 outlook
The company raised its fiscal 2026 comparable-store sales outlook to 0.2%-0.4% from -0.5%-0.0%. It expects net sales of $4.70 billion to $4.72 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $225 million to $229 million, compared with its previous range of $225 million to $235 million.
3. Sales and margin factors
Grocery Outlet said higher transaction counts offset a lower average basket size, driving comparable sales gains. Gross margin declined due to increased promotions, higher transportation costs and reduced produce demand following a Cyclospora outbreak, partly offset by greater sales of opportunistic products. The CEO said improved execution of that offering supported sales.
