Groupon Upgraded to Buy with 11% FY26 Growth Forecast and $245M Buyback
Analyst upgraded Groupon to Buy, raising its rating after a sharp share price decline and projecting 11% revenue growth in FY26. The stock trades at 8.3x EV/FY26 adjusted EBITDA and $245M remains on its buyback program, equal to about one-third of market capitalization.
1. Groupon Shares Dip Below Broader Market Performance
In the latest trading session, Groupon shares declined by 3.18%, underperforming the broader market’s modest gains. Trading volume surged to 18 million shares, roughly 25% above its 30-day average, as investors appeared to react to mixed signals on consumer spending trends. Top-line growth for the past quarter came in at 8%, driven primarily by improvements in its local services segment, but concerns over margin compression weighed on sentiment. Operating expenses rose by 5% year-over-year, reflecting increased investment in marketing and technology upgrades. The stock’s relative underperformance signals caution among institutional holders, with short interest climbing to 7.5% of the float.
2. Rating Upgrade Emphasizes Billings Recovery and Capital Return
Analysts at Meridian Equity raised their rating on Groupon to Buy, citing expectations for an acceleration in billings growth to 11% in fiscal 2026, following a 9% billings increase last year. The firm’s valuation at 8.3 times enterprise value to adjusted EBITDA remains below peer multiples, presenting a potential catalyst if execution meets targets. Management has authorized $245 million more in share repurchases—amounting to roughly one-third of current market capitalization—which could support the stock by reducing share count and signaling confidence in future cash flows. Free cash flow is forecast to exceed $200 million this year, enabling both continued buybacks and strategic investments in platform enhancements.