Gulf crude oil exports return to 2025 level, Goldman Sachs says
USO•Goldman Sachs estimates Gulf oil exports recovered to 23.3 million barrels per day over the last week, matching their 2025 average, after doubling in September. It said Brent could moderate to $85 a barrel by year-end and $80 in 2027, while warning that renewed escalation could push prices significantly higher.
1. Exports recover
Goldman Sachs estimates Gulf oil exports, including dark exports from ships with location transponders turned off, reached 23.3 million barrels per day over the last week, in line with their 2025 average. The recovery was driven by increased shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, including ship-to-ship transfers. Crude exports reached 19 million barrels per day, or 108% of their 2025 average, while the bank estimates dark exports totaled about 5.2 million barrels per day in September.
2. Oil outlook and risks
Goldman said refined product and LPG exports have grown, but diesel, gasoline and jet fuel exports remain at 50% of their 2025 average. It estimates the global oil market was roughly balanced in September, with OECD commercial oil stocks in line with late February 2026 levels. The bank said adaptation in Middle East supply and China import demand supports its forecast for Brent at $85 a barrel by year-end and $80 in 2027, while warning that renewed escalation damaging energy infrastructure could cause significant price increases.
