Gulf Oil Flows Collapse to 3%, Export Disruption Hits 15.4 M bpd
Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz plunged to 3% of normal, triggering 6.3 million bpd of production shut-ins across Gulf producers and a 15.4 million bpd export disruption. Brent slid from nearly $120 to $90 as US gasoline surged 15% and Asian jet fuel exports hit zero.
1. Strait of Hormuz Flow Collapse
Tanker attacks have cut flows through the Strait of Hormuz to just 3% of normal levels, severely limiting exports from key Gulf producers.
2. Production Shut-Ins and Export Impact
Production shut-ins across Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE and smaller Gulf states total 6.3 million barrels per day, while total export disruptions reached 15.4 million bpd on a four-day moving average—15 times the peak impact from Russia’s 2022 cuts.
3. Price Volatility and Refined Products
Brent crude prices fell from nearly $120 to $90 per barrel, with WTI around $87, as US retail gasoline prices jumped 15% to $3.63 per gallon and Asian jet fuel exports fell to zero.
4. Rerouting Efforts and Market Outlook
An estimated 4 million bpd is being rerouted via Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu port and UAE’s Fujairah terminal, but futures markets still price in a relatively brief disruption, assigning a 30% probability of conflict resolution by March 31.