Guotai Asset Management flags AI memory spend shifting to scale-up compute as HBM configs shrink
SOXX•Shift in AI spending mix
Guotai said reduced HBM content could shift system spending toward scale-up interconnect and compute chips, driving divergence between telecom and chip equipment stocks.
It expects AI capex to stay resilient, projecting global cloud capex of USD 1.5 trillion in 2027, led by Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Meta near USD 1 trillion.
Memory expansion still key for equipment demand
Memory expansion remains the key incremental driver for semiconductor equipment, though Guotai warned the memory demand margin is weakening, sustaining volatility risk.
Guotai sees China semiconductor sector under pressure
Guotai Asset Management flagged a sharp pullback in China’s semiconductor sector on Aug. 3 as investor risk appetite weakened on lower turnover.
It cited SemiAnalysis research suggesting Nvidia’s Ultra chips may cut HBM to 8-Hi, 192GB HBM4, potentially trimming long-term memory demand.
