Hamilton Lane Forecasts AI-Driven Returns; Private Credit Outperforms 24 Years
Hamilton Lane’s 2026 Market Overview predicts AI as the dominant driver of returns and finds private credit outperformed public benchmarks for 24 consecutive years. The report notes private equity’s long-term outperformance and highlights Hamilton Lane’s $1.0 trillion AUM across discretionary and non-discretionary assets entering a period of structural market change.
1. Annual Market Overview Released
Hamilton Lane released its 2026 Market Overview, providing a comprehensive analysis of global private markets performance trends, liquidity dynamics and sector forecasts across private credit, secondaries and venture capital. The report underscores the firm’s data-driven approach to identifying investment opportunities during structural market shifts.
2. AI as Dominant Determinant
The report highlights AI as the single most important determinant of returns and investment activity, noting public markets are highly concentrated in AI-linked companies, while private markets offer broader venture capital exposure tied to large language models and related technologies.
3. Private Credit and Secondaries Insights
Hamilton Lane finds private credit has outperformed its public benchmark every year for 24 years and shows resilience across cycles, while the GP- and LP-led secondary markets, representing only ~2% of NAV, benefit from supply outpacing capital and attractive entry pricing.
4. Strategic Positioning and AUM
The firm emphasizes private equity’s long-term outperformance and highlights its $1.0 trillion in assets under management and supervision, including $146.1 billion in discretionary assets and $871.5 billion in non-discretionary assets, positioning it to leverage new investment vehicles and liquidity models.