Hello Group Sees Low-Mid Teens Domestic Decline, Aiming RMB3bn Overseas Revenue
Hello Group expects 2026 domestic revenue to decline low to mid-teens while projecting RMB3bn in overseas revenue, driving flat or slightly down group-level revenue versus 2025. Q4 gross margin held stable on agency recovery and MENA operating leverage, while overseas operations absorb a RMB200m loss under scaling investments.
1. Q4 Earnings Performance
Hello Group’s Q4 2025 gross margin remained stable due to a stronger-than-expected recovery among agencies and broadcasters and improved operating leverage in the MENA region. This resilience underpins management’s view that group-level margin could hold near Q4 levels in 2026, despite macro uncertainties.
2. 2026 Domestic Business Outlook
Domestic revenue is forecast to decline in the low to mid-teens year-over-year, as new tax policies weighed on the supply side in H2 2025. Management is enhancing AI tools to boost user experience and focusing on efficiency to sustain profitability in its core market.
3. 2026 Overseas Growth Strategy
Overseas revenue surged in 2025, driven by new MENA products Yahalan and Ammar, with dating segments poised to become a significant pillar. The company targets approximately RMB3 billion in overseas revenue for 2026 through deeper market penetration and expansion into non-MENA markets.
4. Margin and Profitability Outlook
Overseas operations remain in an investment phase, incurring an estimated RMB200 million operating loss in 2025 as new apps scale. While mature products like Soulchill are profitable, additional capital allocation will be disciplined, balancing growth with defined payback periods.