Hess Midstream (HESM) traded lower (down about 3% to $37.20) as the market repriced the partnership’s near-term growth profile around a steadier—but slower—Bakken development cadence. The company’s outlook has been anchored to Chevron’s three-rig plan in the basin, which points to relatively flat adjusted EBITDA at the midpoint of its 2026 guidance and a more muted volume trajectory for crude versus gas.

Hess Midstream’s 2026 framework calls for net income of $650–$700 million, adjusted EBITDA of $1.225–$1.275 billion, and adjusted free cash flow of $850–$900 million, with capital spending expected to fall to about $150 million. That mix supports targeted distribution growth (at least 5% annually) while leaving excess cash flow that can be directed to incremental returns of capital and/or debt reduction, but it also reinforces that headline growth is not the main driver near term.

With Chevron’s acquisition of Hess completed, the market has less reason to assign a takeover-related premium to Hess-linked assets and is shifting attention back to basin activity levels, MVC protections, and valuation versus other midstream income names. In that setup, even modest shifts in sentiment around Bakken drilling intensity or long-dated volume growth can translate into outsized day-to-day moves for a high-yield, slower-growth security like HESM.

Key near-term catalysts include any updated commentary on Chevron’s Bakken drilling program and nominations under minimum volume commitments, plus signals on how excess free cash flow will be split between unit repurchases and leverage reduction. Investors will also be watching for the next earnings timing and any update to multi-year guidance that changes the expected slope of gas throughput growth and tariff escalators.