High gasoline prices expected to boost US consumer inflation in September
SPY•US consumer prices were forecast to rise 0.6% in September, driven by higher gasoline and food costs, while core CPI was expected to increase 0.2%. The report will help determine the 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment.
1. Overall inflation forecast
The Consumer Price Index was forecast to rise 0.6% in September after increasing 0.4% in August, according to a survey of economists. Gasoline prices rose 7.1% in September, and food prices were expected to increase at least 0.2%. The annual CPI rate was forecast to reach 3.6%, up from 3.4% in August.
2. Core prices and the Fed
Core CPI, excluding food and energy, was expected to rise 0.2% in September after a 0.3% increase in August. Economists said that moderation could support the Federal Reserve holding rates at its October meeting, while markets assigned a roughly 22% chance of a rate increase. The Fed raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points last month to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%.
3. Social Security adjustment
The September CPI report will be used in calculating the 2027 cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security and Supplemental Security Income benefits. The Senior Citizens League projected a 3.5% increase, up from 2.8% in 2026, which would raise the average monthly retiree benefit by $67.90 to $2,007.
