High stocks, low price, but don't write lead off just yet: Andy Home
XLB•Lead prices have fallen almost 6% this year to $1,900 per metric ton, but exchange inventories have declined and Chinese imports have surged as domestic stocks remain low. Lead is used in backup batteries, and data centers account for around 8% of demand.
1. Stocks fall despite warehouse churn
LME three-month lead has underperformed other metals this year, while the global market is on track for a fourth straight annual supply surplus. Total LME inventories, including off-warrant stocks, fell from 502,600 tons at the end of March to 407,000 tons. A 46,800-ton cancellation last week involved metal moving between warehouses in Singapore under a rent-sharing deal.
2. Singapore trade shifts
Singapore exported 47,000 tons of lead in July, August and September, up from 28,000 tons in the prior three months. Refined lead imports from March to September were 49,000 tons, down from 183,000 tons in the prior six months.
3. China imports more lead
China imported 175,000 tons of refined lead in the first nine months of the year, compared with 24,000 tons in the same period of 2025. Imports of antimonial lead more than tripled to 88,000 tons, while lead bullion imports rose 82% to 136,000 tons. Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses held 26,802 tons, their lowest level since August 2024, and the Shanghai contract was in backwardation. Data centers account for around 8% of lead demand, according to Trafigura's head of analysis.
