Homrich & Berg flags AI debt deluge as downgrade risk, not default risk, for hyperscaler bonds
QQQ•Cloud revenue growth could offset some pressure
Cloud revenue acceleration was highlighted as a potential offset, with Google, AWS, and Azure growth near 50% so far in 2026.
Main risk is rating drift if leverage keeps rising
The core risk was seen as rating drift if leverage keeps rising; combined capex is projected near $785 billion in 2026, climbing above $1 trillion in 2027.
Senior hyperscaler debt was viewed as low default-risk due to parent support; project-level or securitized structures were seen as higher impairment risk.
AI-related borrowing surge seen as a supply-driven technical
Homrich & Berg flagged a surge in AI-related corporate borrowing as hyperscaler issuance nears $500 billion in 2026, about one-third of IG supply.
Spread widening was framed as a supply-driven technical, not deteriorating fundamentals toward default, given AA/AAA balance sheets and average net debt/EBITDA near 0.2x.
