Homrich & Berg flags persistent inflation as top risk, sees odds of September Fed hike above 50%
SPY•Inflation, Fed odds and market backdrop
- Homrich & Berg flagged persistent inflation as the top risk, lifting September Fed hike odds above 50%.
- AI-led capex kept the US outlook firm; 2Q GDP rose 1.5% on tax-refund support for consumption.
- Labor markets held steady; unemployment fell to 4.1% while jobless claims trended lower.
- Stocks hit new highs as S&P 500 EPS grew 32.7%; the index rose 2.6% in August, 12.3% YTD.
- 30-year Treasury yields neared 20-year highs, briefly topping 5.3%; the firm favored the curve’s belly over long maturities.
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