Homrich & Berg says no consistent stock “playbook” across 150 years of investment booms
SPY•Homrich & Berg says booms have not followed one stock-market playbook
Homrich & Berg analysis finds no consistent stock-market “playbook” across major investment booms over the past 150 years.
- AI investment boom since late 2022: real stock prices up 71% in just over 3 years, second to the 1990s telecom-fiber surge.
- Broad-market earnings up 33% about 40 months into the AI cycle; telecom-fiber showed 10% growth, railroads 19%.
- Price-earnings gap in early AI cycle about 20 points; far below telecom-fiber’s 92-point gap, below highways’ 38-point gap.
- Market P/E up about 20% to 25x from 22x; prior booms typically saw about 55% multiple expansion by peak.
