Homrich & Berg says US stocks stay AI-driven as earnings momentum for AI names cools
SPY•Earnings momentum may cap large-cap returns
The note expects decelerating AI earnings momentum to cap large-cap US returns, with improving non-AI earnings helping offset the drag.
AI-linked net income is projected at USD 1.3 trillion in 2026, or 41.1% of S&P 500 income, rising to USD 1.6 trillion in 2027.
Homrich & Berg sees AI still driving US equities
Homrich & Berg flagged AI as the dominant driver of US equities as April–May gains reversed in June–July.
Since the June 2 peak, the average AI stock fell 14.4% while the average non-AI stock rose 5%; the market fell 2.6% cap-weighted.
On an equal-weight basis, the S&P 500 rose 3.2% since June 2; it rose 5% excluding 45 AI-focused stocks.
