Houthi Red Sea blockade would lift oil prices, but workarounds could limit impact

The Bab el-Mandeb connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and is a key route for crude and fuel shipments moving between the Middle East, Europe and Asia. Since Houthi attacks on shipping began in 2023, many vessels have already rerouted around Africa, adding costs and delays to global trade.

A full closure would have the biggest immediate impact on Saudi crude exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Matt Smith, commodity research director at Kpler, said Asian refiners receiving those barrels could face delays of around a month as tankers are forced to sail around the Cape of Good Hope.

"The impact is going to be massive in the first month," Smith said. "The biggest impact is going to be on Saudi flows."

Bronze estimated that more than 3 million barrels per day of Saudi crude currently shipped via the Red Sea to Asia could be forced onto much longer routes. The disruption would create logistical bottlenecks because fully loaded VLCCs cannot transit the Suez Canal while capacity on Egypt's SUMED pipeline, which links the Red Sea and Mediterranean Sea, is fixed.