How AI is impacting world trade
SPY•AI infrastructure investment is helping drive strong growth in global goods trade, but an economist said slowing U.S. IT investment could reverse a 1.5-percentage-point boost to world export growth.
1. AI trade boost
Simon MacAdam, deputy chief global economist at Capital Economics, said AI investment is a key driver of strong global goods trade. He linked growth in real goods exports and higher export prices to demand for chips and AI hardware, and said economies in AI supply chains have seen increases in exports and imports.
2. Potential slowdown
MacAdam said data suggests demand growth for computing equipment has passed its peak, potentially putting export momentum near a high. Capital Economics forecasts U.S. real IT investment to level off next year and fall in 2028; because U.S. IT equipment is largely imported, the expected slowdown in U.S. spending could reverse its 1.5-percentage-point boost to world export growth.
