How the Republican redistricting gambit faltered under Trump slump
SPY•Nine Republican-redrawn House districts now lean Democratic or are too close to call, Reuters analysis shows. Analysts consider only one of nine targets in Texas and Florida a safe Republican pickup, while four heavily contested redrawn races drew an average of more than $12 million each from Republican-aligned groups.
1. Redistricting gains fade
Republicans pursued an unprecedented mid-decade redistricting campaign at President Donald Trump's urging, redrawing dozens of House districts ahead of November's midterm elections to protect their narrow majority. Of 16 districts where Republicans had improved their advantage by June, nine now are expected to go to Democrats or are too close to call, while courts threw out a 10th Republican district.
2. Texas and Florida contests
New maps reshaped nine Democratic-held seats in Texas and Florida into districts Trump carried in 2024 by 9 to 20 percentage points. Analysts now consider only one of the nine a sure Republican pickup and six highly competitive; Cook Political Report's Erin Covey said Democrats could fail to flip any of Florida's four redrawn seats, but could net two seats through redistricting if a Democratic wave grows strong.
3. Spending and other races
Four of the six House races receiving the most outside spending from Republican-aligned groups are in Republican-redrawn seats, with an average of more than $12 million spent on each. In Alabama, forecasters rate a newly redrawn, majority-white district as Lean Republican, while a Texas seat represented by Republican Monica De La Cruz is now widely seen as a tossup after its map changed and Democratic challenger Bobby Pulido entered the race.
