Ibotta Forecasts 15.5% Q4 Revenue Decline, Shares Down 7.8% Pre-Earnings
Last quarter Ibotta generated $83.3M in revenue, a 15.6% decline year-on-year, and forecasts Q4 revenue to drop about 15.5% yoy, missing analysts’ expectations. Its shares have fallen 7.8% recently, with analysts maintaining a $28 average price target despite underperformance against peers QuinStreet and MediaAlpha.
1. Q3 Results Fall Short
Ibotta reported Q3 revenue of $83.26 million, down 15.6% year-on-year, though it beat consensus on EPS. The company noted persistent headwinds in consumer spending and loyalty spending patterns, contributing to the slowdown in cash-back transaction volumes.
2. Q4 Revenue Forecast Misses Estimates
Management guided Q4 revenue to decline approximately 15.5% year-on-year, below analysts’ estimates for a smaller drop. This marks a continuation of revenue contraction after flat topline growth in the same quarter last year.
3. Peer Performance Context
Within the advertising and marketing services sector, QuinStreet delivered 1.9% year-on-year revenue growth and beat estimates by 4.2%, driving a 10.7% stock rally. MediaAlpha, by contrast, saw a 3.2% revenue decline, missing expectations by 2.9%, underscoring mixed dynamics in the peer group.
4. Share Performance and Analyst Targets
Ibotta’s stock has declined 7.8% over the past month, underperforming its peer average drop of 8.9%. Despite the downturn, analysts have largely maintained their estimates and hold an average price target of $28 against the current share price near $20.86.