IMF nudges up global growth forecast on strong AI spending
SPY•The IMF raised its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% from 3.0%, saying strong AI investment is offsetting an energy shock. It warned that downside risks are mounting.
1. Global outlook revised
The IMF forecast global growth of 3.1% in 2026, up 0.1 percentage point from its July estimate, and kept its 2027 forecast at 3.4%. The lender said strong AI investment is offsetting the energy shock from the war in the Middle East, while warning that downside risks are mounting.
2. Regional estimates vary
The IMF raised its 2026 forecast for the euro area to 1.1% from 0.9% in July and for India to 7.0% from 6.4%. It cut its estimate for emerging markets to 3.7% from 3.8%, and projected Saudi Arabia’s economy would contract 3.3%, down from a July forecast of 1.7% growth.
