Impact of proposed China biotech investment rules expected to be minimal, RBC says
XLV•RBC Capital Markets analysts expect the U.S. Treasury’s proposed rules screening investment in China to have minimal impact on the biotech sector. The brokerage said first-half China deal flow rose to 45, while the share of licensed assets is projected to increase from 5% in 2024 to 12% in 2026.
1. Limited expected impact
RBC Capital Markets analysts said the current wording of the proposed rules is broad enough to allow most dealmaking, though the rules could become more restrictive or looser. The brokerage said larger companies may continue pursuing mergers and acquisitions while smaller ones retain access to more affordable assets outside the United States.
2. Company exposure and deal flow
RBC said companies with an acquisitive history, such as Jazz Pharmaceuticals, could focus resources on U.S. deals to avoid even potential Treasury scrutiny. It described practical impacts on Legend Biotech and BeOne Medicines as immaterial, citing their Cayman Islands and Swiss domiciles, respectively. RBC said first-half China deal flow rose to 45 deals and the share of all licensed assets climbed from 5% in 2024 to 12% in 2026.
