Imperial Oil Misses Q4 Estimates with $1.05 EPS and $6.02B Revenue

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Imperial Oil reported Q4 EPS of $1.05, missing the $1.36 consensus estimate, and generated $6.02 billion in revenue versus an expected $8.84 billion. Its price-to-sales ratio stands at 1.12, reflecting residual investor confidence despite the earnings and sales shortfall.

1. Fourth Quarter Financial Performance

Imperial Oil reported U.S. GAAP net income of CAD 492 million for Q4 2025, down from CAD 1,225 million in Q4 2024. On a per-share diluted basis, earnings were CAD 1.00 versus CAD 2.37 a year earlier. Excluding identified items—primarily a CAD 421 million pre-tax acceleration charge at Norman Wells and a CAD 206 million pre-tax inventory optimization charge—net income stood at CAD 968 million, compared with CAD 1,225 million in the prior-year quarter.

2. Production and Refining Operations

Upstream production averaged 444,000 gross barrels of oil equivalent per day, with Kearl output at 274,000 barrels (Imperial’s share: 194,000) and Cold Lake at 153,000 barrels. The Syncrude joint venture contributed 87,000 gross barrels per day. Downstream, refinery throughput averaged 408,000 barrels per day at 94% capacity utilization, and petroleum product sales averaged 479,000 barrels per day, up from 458,000 in Q4 2024.

3. Cash Flow, Capital Expenditures and Shareholder Returns

Operating cash flow reached CAD 1,918 million, up from CAD 1,789 million in the year-ago quarter. Excluding working capital impacts, cash flow was CAD 1,260 million after an unfavourable CAD 325 million related to identified items. Capital and exploration expenditures totaled CAD 651 million, up from CAD 423 million. During the quarter, Imperial returned CAD 2,072 million to shareholders through CAD 361 million in dividends and CAD 1,711 million in accelerated share repurchases under its NCIB program.

4. First Quarter 2026 Dividend and Outlook

On February 24, 2026, the board declared a first-quarter dividend of CAD 0.87 per share, payable April 1 to holders of record on March 5, representing a 20% increase over the CAD 0.72 dividend in Q4 2025. Management cited its integrated business model, record annual crude production and the start-up of Canada’s largest renewable diesel facility as drivers for sustaining cash flow and funding future growth initiatives.

Sources

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