India's dealmaking resilient despite weak rupee, equity slump, Citi's Saraf says
INDA•India's year-to-date M&A deal value fell more than 19% to $95.5 billion, but deal numbers were little changed. Citi investment banking head Rahul Saraf said strategic dealmaking remains resilient despite the weaker rupee and equity market slump.
1. Deal value declines
India's year-to-date M&A deal value fell more than 19% to $95.5 billion from $118.5 billion a year earlier, while the number of deals was little changed. Saraf said dealmaking is being driven by strategy rather than financial engineering.
2. Partnerships and sectors
Saraf expects more partnerships between Chinese companies and large Indian conglomerates in industrial and consumer sectors, citing JSW Group's tie-up with SAIC Motor's MG Motor. He also sees strong activity in healthcare, consumer, infrastructure and technology, as promoters become more open to consolidation and dilution. India eased rules for minority Chinese investments in March after six years of curbs.
3. Currency and investors
Saraf said a 1%-2% currency move is a variable but not a major one for strategic deals. The rupee has lost about 6% so far in 2026, and foreign portfolio investors had sold a record $32.56 billion of Indian stocks as of October 26. Saraf said he expects global investors to return and pointed to domestic mutual fund and insurance holdings of about $700 billion in equity, alongside promoters' 45% ownership.
