India’s private credit market enters more mature phase, Houlihan Lokey says
HLI•India’s private credit assets under management are projected to grow from roughly $25 billion to $80 billion-$90 billion within five years. Private credit accounted for one in four Indian deals in 2025, up from one in five in 2024.
1. Market growth and deal share
India’s private credit assets under management are projected to reach $80 billion-$90 billion within five years, from roughly $25 billion. Private credit accounted for one in four Indian deals in 2025, compared with one in five in 2024.
2. Returns and fund structure
Investment of $15.6 billion in 2025 was a record but was skewed by large transactions; slower deployment signals market maturation rather than retreat. Returns above 17%-18% increasingly depend on complex financing structures, making valuation discipline and stress-testing underwriting assumptions more important. The market is dominated by closed-end funds prohibited from using fund-level leverage, limiting exposure to redemption-driven liquidity pressures.
