Industrifonden research finds investors misjudge rare-disease deal timing and launch performance
XLV•Experience increased confidence, not accuracy
Greater industry experience increased willingness to estimate outcomes, without improving accuracy.
Research says investors misprice rare-disease deals
Industrifonden-backed research found investors misprice rare-disease deals, citing systematic gaps versus published benchmarks across 43 VC, pharma BD professionals.
Survey found poor calibration on launches and exits
Survey results showed 84% underestimated rare-disease launch performance despite evidence most launches meet or beat analyst expectations.
Only 9% correctly identified the most common acquisition exit point, suggesting prevalent-disease deal patterns skew rare-disease valuation assumptions.
Study warns of distorted pricing and capital allocation
The study warned miscalibration can distort risk pricing, capital allocation, and deal timing across rare-disease assets.
