Intel’s shares plunged 17% on January 23, reflecting investor concerns over supply constraints and soft forward guidance. In its Q4’25 results, Intel reported revenue of $13.67 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $0.15, beating consensus estimates of $13.37 billion and $0.08 respectively. However, management’s Q1’26 revenue outlook of $11.7–$12.7 billion came in below the Street’s expectation of roughly $12.6 billion, signaling that wafer shortages and yield challenges will limit near-term growth in both client compute and data-center CPU shipments.

With its new-foundry strategy, Intel is delaying significant build-out of its next-generation Intel 14A node until it secures firm external customer contracts. The company has so far seen only limited off-take for its Intel 18A process—internal volumes for Panther Lake CPUs dominate capacity—and CEO Lip-Bu Tan has stressed that “blank-check” investments are over. Intel plans to deliver version 0.5 of the Intel 14A process design kit in Q1 2026 and is targeting risk production by late 2027, but the business’s long-term viability depends on landing hyperscaler or fabless partners in H2 2026.

Despite near-term supply headwinds, Monte Independent Investment Research and several Wall Street firms have reiterated Intel as a Strong Buy, assigning a $66.62 price target based on 20–25% annual revenue growth through 2029. Key drivers include ramp of Intel 14A and 18A for AI and data-center chips, growing demand for Xeon processors, and potential external foundry clients in 2026–2027. Management has prioritized digital-computing and AI manufacturing over client compute, aiming to improve gross margin from 34.8% in Q4’25 as wafer supply constraints ease.