Intel shares jumped as much as 6.9% early Monday following reports of a U.S. military operation to remove Venezuela’s president. By 3:20 p.m. ET the gain had evaporated, leaving the stock flat against a 0.6% rise in both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite. Trading volume reached 96 million shares, above the 90 million-share average, suggesting heavy investor interest in the geopolitical catalyst.

Investors seized on the idea that heightened geopolitical risk could disrupt Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing’s dominance and benefit Intel’s U.S. based foundry operations. With TSMC handling over 50% of global contract chip manufacturing, a shift toward a domestic supplier could open multi-billion-dollar opportunities for Intel’s eight fabs in Arizona. The company’s gross margin of 35.58% highlights current profitability challenges if it scales up capital-intensive foundry capacity.

Intel remains in turnaround mode as it cedes CPU share in both PC and server markets. Success now depends on securing large AI chip contracts next year: analysts model that each $1 billion in new foundry revenue could boost operating income by roughly $500 million. With a market capitalization of $188 billion, the company must demonstrate competitive yields on its 18A process nodes and announce at least two design-win commitments by mid-2026 to shift sentiment and justify valuation.